Energostat. Data Analysis and Forecasting Service

The Energostat Data Analysis and Forecasting Service provides tools for the analysis and forecasting of power consumption and other performance indicators implemented as a cloud service accessible for the user community.

The main advantages of the use of cloud technologies in forecasting are as follows:

• A possibility to use the Forecasting Service tools from different places (at work, at home etc.), from different hardware platforms and from any devices with web access, including mobile devices;
• No software is required at the client side; therefore, administration and support costs are reduced;
• Simple data interchange among various users’ databases in the cloud; and
• Quick access to suitable forecasting tools provided to various enterprises (utility, grid and generating companies, their branches and large consumers).

The basic functions of the Forecasting Service are as follows:

• Preparation of the parameter structure in the database;
• Loading data for analysis –from text files, MS Excel files, XML layouts, SCADA and other sources;
• Data viewing and analysis, statistical analysis and meteorological factor effect investigation;
• Forecasting and analysis of forecast accuracy;
• Data exchange among users, branch and subdivision data integration in central offices; and
• Report generation.

The functionality of the Forecasting Service can be used by any enterprise operating in the electric power industry and other branches of the industry, where the monitoring of parameters over the course of the day is required alongside with the statistical analysis and forecasting functions. General-purpose software for processing daily shapes can be applied to a broad class of parameters plotted at a resolution of 1 hour and 30 min. For long-term planning tasks, data processing tools of monthly, quarterly and yearly resolution are available.

Statistical tools provide the statistical analysis for different time ranges selected, from several days to several years, by particular days of the week that allow detecting certain regularities or trends. The following calculations are implemented:

• Reference statistics – mean, mean dispersion, square deviations, packing factors and daily shape irregularities;
• Parameter increments relative to the previous period with respect to the number of business days and holidays, also normalized to the same meteorological conditions; and
• Indices of meteorological factor effects on power consumption and other parameters.

The analysis may be both general for a time series and for hours of the daily shapes.

The tables of statistical estimate results and plots of statistical factors, correlation and autocorrelation function curves may be printed and exported to MS Excel.

At this time Analysis and Forecasting Service is available only by request to info@energostat.ru.

Energostat report at POWERENG 2015 and EERA JP Smart Grids WG meeting